O futuro dos quelônios amazônicos no contexto das mudanças climáticas

Abstract

Assessing the effects of global warming on species distribution is largely necessary for understanding its consequences on biodiversity. Based on knowledge about the current and expected effects of climate change in the Amazon and in the chelonian group, this study used species distribution models to understand the consequences of these changes in the potential areas of species occurrence, answering the following questions: 1) Which regions and what is the extent of the distribution of Amazonian chelonians that will be experienced by future climate changes? 2) Which species will be most impacted? As a result, we observed that the models presented considerable performances. They stand out as, as projections of potential distributions in the current period, the wide distribution of the species Chelonoidis denticulatus; C. carbonarius and Platemys platycephala. For future climate scenario projections, all lost species are potential. Phrynops tuberosus (87.69%), M. nasuta (82.51%), P. platycephala (45.16%), M. raniceps (43.96%), P. sextuberculata (38.69%), C denticulatus (36.19%) are the species that most lost area in this scenario. For a more extreme future scenario, the species that lost the greatest potential area are M. nasuta (98.93%), P. tuberosus (97.87%), P. erythrocephala (66.26%), M. raniceps (63.46%), C. denticulatus (61.62%). Chelonians are animals that are very protected by the hydrological dynamics of water bodies, which will be especially impacted in the Amazon, avoiding changes in flow, precipitation, humidity, extent of flooding and the intensity of phenomena in different seasons of the basin. These changes will bring deleterious effects to chelonians, which depend on the river level and the area and period of flooding for reproduction and feeding. Chelonians with semiaquatic habits also lose very important feeding areas with the change in the hydrological regime and the landscape around the rivers. Very worrying is the fact that all species of turtles in the Amazon will be affected by climate change, with the vast majority losing large areas of suitable environmental areas for their occurrence. Mitigation actions, in the long term, at different scales, are essential to soften the effects of this scenario and contribute to the preservation of these species.