Relações econômica e climática na produção agrícola no leste do Pará.

Abstract

The present research related the average yields or productivity of the eight main crops located in municipalities in the east of Para. In the economic relation, it was worked with the dependent variable Gross agricultural value added (VAB.AGR) and the climatic relation was performed with the variables precipitation and temperature during 2002-2016. The selection of the eight crops was according to their percentage representation in the quantities produced during the study period. For this reason, the crops were divided into permanent (CP: banana, coconut palm, palm, and orange) and temporary (CT: sugar cane, cassava, corn, and soybean). The secondary data of the VAB.AGR, quantities produced (QP), average yields (Rm) or productivity and values of municipalities production were compiled in the portal of the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) and Produção Agrícola Mensal (PAM). Regarding the complexity of the climatic variables, the information of the Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique (CMORPH) for the precipitations and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) for the temperature data were researched and collected. The methodologies used were the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) to know the level of association between the variables having as a dependent variable the GVA.AGR, as well as the Pearson Coefficient to know the degree of relationship between climatic variables and the QP and Rm. Finally, from the results obtained we can believe that the eight selected crops, at least one type of crop, is significant with the economic, and climatic development.