Análise computacional do rompimento hipotético da barragem de Tucuruí-PA com o auxílio do software Mike Flood

Abstract

Present work seeks to elaborate flood maps and to perform the flood wave analysis, due to the hypothetical break of the dam of the Tucuruí Hydroelectric Power Plant (Tucuruí HPP), using commercial software MIKE FLOOD. For such purpose, are considered, the overtopping scenario and the total rupture of the Tucuruí HPP concrete dam. Methodology adopted for the research consisted of the collection of technical information regarding the damming, in addition the hydrological study of the areas upstream and downstream of the dam, that are essential for the definition of the input parameters in the computational model to be elaborated. Computational hydrodynamic modeling was carried out in three stages: the first consisted of an one-dimensional analysis in MIKE 11 software; subsequently, with the MIKE 21 software, the triangular calculation mesh was generated for the two-dimensional analysis; and finally, the coupled analysis of the two models previously developed with the MIKE FLOOD software was proceeded. Results indicated areas of flood of up to 84.71 km² for the first one hundred and ten minutes after the rupture gap formation, with a reaction time of approximately eight minutes for the resident population in the urban area of Tucuruí, indicating high potential of loss of human life. It should be noted that the hypothetical floodplain covers residential areas and the commercial center of the city, as well as several urban facilities and public agencies, in addition of one of the most important access roads to the city, BR 422, which restricts the definition of evacuation of the affected population. Thus, it is concluded that the consequences of the rupture of the Tucuruí HPP for the analyzed scenario justify the elaboration of an Emergency Action Plan that guarantees the population security the downstream and that minimizes the economic and environmental impacts resulting from such event.